The expert community is becoming more and more aware that the further development of civilization along the historically established path is impossible, since new global problems have now appeared that threaten the existence of this civilization. For the first time in the history of mankind, the most important indicators of the state of the biosphere have shifted from stationary levels.
These indicators include: a sharp deterioration in air and water quality; global warming; depletion of the ozone layer; biodiversity loss; reaching the limit of food, raw material and energy potential of the biosphere; the loss of moral guidelines by a significant part of the human community (the so-called "phenomenon of the immoral majority").
The monument to our generation will apparently look like this: in the middle of a huge sludge dump stands a majestic bronze figure in a gas mask, and at the bottom on a granite pedestal is the inscription: “We defeated nature!”.
The first industrial revolution based on coal and the second industrial revolution based on oil and gas fundamentally changed the life and work of mankind and transformed the face of the planet. However, these two revolutions brought humanity to the limit of development. Among the main challenges that are thrown to mankind are environmental problems (see above), the depletion of bioresources and traditional energy sources. And humanity must respond to these challenges with the THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
"Third Industrial Revolution" (ThirdIndustrialRevolution - TIR) is the concept of human development, the author of which is an American scientist - economist and environmentalist - Jeremy Rifkin. Here are the main provisions of the TIR concept:
1) Transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, water flows, geothermal sources).
Although "green" energy has not yet occupied a large segment in the world (no more than 3-4%), investments in it are growing at a tremendous pace. Thus, in 2008, $155 billion was spent on green energy projects ($52 billion - wind energy, $34 billion - solar energy, $17 billion - biofuels, etc.), and for the first time it was more than investments in fossil fuels. .
Only in the last three years (2009-2011) the total capacity of solar stations installed in the world has tripled (from 13.6 GW to 36.3 GW). If we talk about all RES (wind, solar, geothermal and marine energy, bioenergy and small hydropower), then the installed capacity of power plants in the world using RES already in 2010 exceeded the capacity of all nuclear power plants and amounted to about 400 GW.
At the end of 2011, the price in Europe of one kWh of "green" energy for consumers was: hydropower - 5 euro cents, wind - 10 euro cents, solar - 20 euro cents (for comparison: conventional heat - 6 euro cents). However, the expected scientific and technological breakthroughs in solar energy will make it possible by 2020 to get a sharp drop in prices for solar panels and reduce the turnkey price of 1 watt of solar power from $2.5 to $0.8-1, which will allow generating "green » electricity at a price lower than from the cheapest coal-fired thermal power plants.
2) The transformation of existing and new buildings (both industrial and residential) into mini-factories for the production of energy (by equipping them with solar panels, mini-windmills, heat pumps). For example, there are 190 million buildings in the European Union. Each of them can become a small power plant, drawing energy from roofs, walls, warm ventilation and sewer flows, garbage. It is necessary to gradually say goodbye to the large energy suppliers generated by the Second Industrial Revolution - based on coal, gas, oil, uranium. The third industrial revolution is a myriad of small energy sources from wind, sun, water, geothermal, heat pumps, biomass, including solid household and "sewer" urban waste, etc.
3) Development and implementation of energy-resource-saving technologies (both industrial and "home") - complete utilization of residual flows and losses of electricity, steam, water, any heat, complete utilization of industrial and domestic waste, etc.
4) Transfer of all motor vehicles (cars and trucks) and all public transport to electric traction based on hydrogen energy (plus the development of new economical types of freight transport such as airships, underground pneumatic transport, etc.).
Currently, over one billion internal combustion engines (ICEs) are in operation in the world - internal combustion engines (cars and trucks, tractors, agricultural and construction equipment, military equipment, ships, aviation, etc.), which annually burn about one and a half billion tons of motor fuel (gasoline , aviation kerosene, diesel fuel) and have a depressing effect on the environment.
According to the International Energy Agency, more than half of the oil consumed in the world goes to the needs of transport. In the US, transportation accounts for about 70% of all oil consumed, in Europe - 52%; no wonder that 65% of oil is consumed in large cities (30 million barrels of oil per day in total!).
Wolfgang Schreiberg, one of the leaders of Volkswagen, cited interesting statistics: most urban commercial vehicles in most countries travel no more than 50 km per day, and the average speed of these vehicles is 5-10 km / h; however, with such meager indicators, these cars consume an average of liters of motor fuel per 100 km! Most of this fuel burns at traffic lights, in traffic jams or during small loading and unloading (or at stops for public transport) with the engine running.
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory (USA) in their calculations used an average range of a car run of 12,000 miles per year (19,200 km), hydrogen consumption - 1 kg per 60 miles (96 km). Those. One passenger car needs 200 kg of hydrogen per year, or 0.55 kg per day.
Recently, the "hydrogen car" of the Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) of the US Department of Energy covered 1046 kilometers on one hydrogen gas station.
The average efficiency of internal combustion engines is low - an average of 25%, i.e. when burning 10 liters of gasoline, 7.5 liters goes “down the pipe”. The average efficiency of the electric drive is 75%, three times higher (and the thermodynamic efficiency of the fuel cell is about 90%); the exhaust of a hydrogen car is only H2O.
It is important to note that if the movement of a traditional car requires oil (gasoline, diesel), which not every country has, then hydrogen is obtained from water (even sea water) using electricity, which, unlike oil, can be obtained from various sources - coal, gas, uranium, water flows, sun, wind, etc., and any country must have something from this “set”.
5) The transition from industrial to local and even "home" production of most household goods due to the development of 3D printer technology.
A 3D printer is a device that uses the method of layer-by-layer creation of a physical object based on a virtual 3D model. Unlike conventional printers, 3D printers do not print photos and texts, but "things" - industrial and household goods. Otherwise, they are very similar. As in conventional printers, two layer formation technologies are used - laser and inkjet. A 3D printer also has a “printing” head and “ink” (more precisely, a working material that replaces them). In fact, 3D printers are the same specialized industrial machines with numerical control, but on a completely new scientific and technical basis of the 21st century.
6) The transition from metallurgy to composite materials (especially nano-materials) based on carbon, as well as the replacement of metallurgy with 3D printing technology based on selective laser melting (SLM - SelectiveLaserMelting).
For example, the latest American "Boeing-787-Dreamliner" is the world's first aircraft made of 50% carbon-based composite materials. In the new airliner, the wings and fuselage are made of composite polymers. The widespread use of carbon fiber compared to traditional aluminum has significantly reduced the weight of the aircraft and reduced fuel use by 20% without loss in speed.
The American-Israeli company "ApNano" has created nanomaterials - "inorganic fullerenes" (inorganicfullerene - IF), which are many times stronger and lighter than steel. So, in the experiments, IF samples based on tungsten sulfide stopped steel projectiles flying at a speed of 1.5 km / s, and also withstood a static load of 350 tons / sq. cm. These materials can be used to create shells for missiles, aircraft, ships and sea submarines, skyscrapers, cars, armored vehicles and for other purposes.
NASA decided to use 3D printing technology based on selective laser melting as a replacement for metallurgy. Recently, a complex part for a space rocket was made using laser 3D printing, in which a laser fuses metal dust into a part of any shape - without a single seam or screw connection. The production of the most complex parts using SLM technology using 3D printers takes a matter of days instead of months, in addition, SLM technologies make production 35-55% cheaper.
7) Refusal of animal husbandry, transition to the production of "artificial meat" from animal cells using 3D bioprinters;
The American company ModernMeadow invented the technology of "industrial" production of animal meat and natural leather. The process of creating such meat and skin will include several stages. First, scientists harvest millions of cells from animal donors. This ranges from livestock to exotic species that are often killed just for their skin. Then these cells will be propagated in bioreactors. At the next stage, the cells will be centrifuged to remove the nutrient fluid and combine them into a single mass, which will then be formed into layers using a 3D bioprinter. These cell sheets will be placed back into the bioreactor where they will "mature". Skin cells will form collagen fibers, and "meat" cells will form real muscle tissue. This process will take several weeks, after which the muscle and adipose tissue can be used to produce food, and the skin can be used for shoes, clothes, bags. To obtain meat in a 3D bioprinter, energy will be required three times less, and water - 10 times less than for the production of the same amount of pork, and especially beef, using conventional methods, and greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 20 times compared to the emissions from raising livestock on slaughter (after all, at present, to produce 15 g of animal protein, you need to feed 100 g of vegetable protein to livestock, so the efficiency of the traditional method of obtaining meat is only 15%). An artificial "meat plant" requires much less land (it will take only 1% of the land compared to a conventional farm of the same meat production). In addition, an environmentally friendly product can be obtained from a test tube in sterile laboratories, without any toxic metals, worms, Giardia and other "charms" that are often present in raw meat. In addition, artificially grown meat does not violate ethical standards: it will not be necessary to raise livestock, and then ruthlessly kill them.
8) Transfer of part of agriculture to cities based on the technology of "vertical farms" (VerticalFarm).
Where to get the money for all this, since both Europe and America are drowning in debt? But after all, everywhere a development budget is laid annually - every country and almost every city plans it. It is important to invest in something that has a future, and not in maintaining the life of such infrastructures, technologies, industries or systems that are doomed to extinction.
I would like to express the hope that the "world TIR" will happen much earlier than the moment when mankind exhausts all the natural reserves of coal, oil, gas and uranium, and at the same time completely destroys the natural environment.
After all, the Stone Age did not end because the Earth ran out of stones...
The world industry today is on the verge of the fourth technological revolution, which is associated with the possibility of a radical modernization of production and the economy, as well as the emergence of such phenomena as digital production, the “shared economy”, collective consumption, the “uberization” of the economy, the cloud model. computing, distributed networks, network-centric control model, decentralized control, etc. The technological basis for the transition to a new economic paradigm is the Internet of things. This is stated in the J'son & Partners Consulting report on global trends and the development potential of the Industrial Internet of Things in Russia.
In this regard, both new opportunities and threats are opening up for the domestic industry: a multiple lag in labor productivity and product quality may be supplemented by a lag in the transition to new principles of interaction in the supplier-consumer chain. This may lead to the fundamental impossibility to compete with the leading international industrial concerns, both in terms of production costs and the speed of order execution.
Internet of Things
The Internet of Things (IoT, Internet of Things) is a system of unified computer networks and connected physical objects (things) with built-in sensors and software for collecting and exchanging data, with the possibility of remote control and management in an automated mode, without human intervention.
There is a consumer (mass) segment of the Internet of Things, which includes personal connected devices - smart watches, various kinds of trackers, cars, smart home devices, etc. and the corporate (business) segment, which includes industry verticals and cross-industry markets - industry, transport, agriculture, energy (Smart Grid), smart city (Smart City), etc.
In this study, J'son & Partners Consulting consultants have examined in detail the Internet of Things in the corporate (business) segment, which is called the Industrial Internet of Things, in particular, its application in industry - the Industrial Internet.
Industrial (often Industrial) Internet of Things (Industria lInternet of Things, IIoT) - Internet of Things for corporate / industry applications - a system of interconnected computer networks and connected industrial (production) facilities with built-in sensors and software for collecting and exchanging data, with the possibility of remote control and control in an automated mode, without human intervention.
In industrial applications, the term "Industrial Internet" is used.
The introduction of network interaction between machines, equipment, buildings and information systems, the ability to monitor and analyze the environment, the production process and its own state in real time, the transfer of management and decision-making functions to intelligent systems lead to a change in the “paradigm” of technological development, also called fourth industrial revolution.
The fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is the transition to fully automated digital production, controlled by intelligent systems in real time in constant interaction with the external environment, going beyond the boundaries of one enterprise, with the prospect of joining a global industrial network of things and services.
In a narrow sense, Industry 4.0 (Industrie 4.0) is the name of one of the ten projects of the state Hi-Tech strategy of Germany until 2020, which describes the concept of smart manufacturing (Smart Manufacturing) based on the global industrial network of the Internet of Things and Services (Internet of Things and Services). ).
In a broad sense, Industry 4.0 characterizes the current trend in the development of automation and data exchange, which includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud computing. It represents a new level of organization of production and management of the value chain throughout the entire life cycle of manufactured products.
First industrial revolution (late XVIII - early XIX century) is due to the transition from an agrarian economy to industrial production due to the invention of steam energy, mechanical devices, and the development of metallurgy.
Second industrial revolution (second half of the 19th - beginning of the 20th century) - the invention of electrical energy, followed by in-line production and division of labor.
Third industrial revolution (since 1970) - the use in the production of electronic and information systems that ensured intensive automation and robotization of production processes.
Fourth industrial revolution (the term was introduced in 2011, as part of the German initiative - Industry 4.0).
Despite the active introduction of various types of information and communication technologies (ICT), electronics and industrial robotics into production processes, industrial automation, which began at the end of the 20th century, was predominantly local in nature, when each enterprise or division within one enterprise used its own (proprietary) control system ( or a combination thereof) that were incompatible with other systems.
The development of the Internet, ICT, sustainable communication channels, cloud technologies and digital platforms, as well as the information "explosion" that escaped from different data channels, ensured the emergence of open information systems and global industrial networks (going beyond the boundaries of a single enterprise and interacting with each other), which have a transformative impact on all sectors of the modern economy and business outside the ICT sector itself, and transfer industrial automation to a new, fourth stage of industrialization.
In 2011, the number of connected physical objects in the world exceeded the number of connected people. Since that time, it is customary to calculate the rapid development of the era of the Internet of things.
Despite the differences in the assessment methodology of various international analytical agencies, it can be stated that the application of the new concept will be associated primarily with the widespread use of the Internet of things in economic sectors.
Foreign experts recognize the Internet of Things as a destructive technology that brings an irreversible transformation to the organization of modern production and business processes.
The analysis of the experience of implementing the Internet of Things in the world, carried out by J`son & Partners Consulting consultants, shows that the transition to the IIoT concept occurs due to the formation of cross-industrial open (horizontally and vertically) production and service ecosystems that combine many different information management systems of different enterprises and using many different devices.
This approach makes it possible to implement in the virtual space arbitrarily complex end-to-end business processes that are capable of automatically performing optimization management (end-to-end engineering) of various kinds of resources through the entire supply chain and product value creation - from idea development, design, design to production, operation. and recycling.
To implement this approach, it is required that all the necessary information about the actual state of resources (raw materials and materials, electricity, machine tools and industrial equipment, vehicles, production, marketing, sales) both within one and at different enterprises be available to automated control systems. different levels (drives and sensors, control, production management, implementation and planning).
Thus, we can say that the Industrial Internet of Things is an organizational and technological transformation of production based on the principles of the "digital economy", which allows, at the management level, to combine real production, transport, human, engineering and other resources into almost unlimitedly scalable software-controlled virtual resource pools (shared economy) and provide the user not with the devices themselves, but with the results of their use (device functions) through the implementation of end-to-end production and business processes (end-to-end engineering).
“Until now, companies have been able to manage only part of the manufacturing process, never being able to see the whole picture. And the optimization of each individual part of this process optimizes the entire chain. We also had difficulties in ensuring the stability of supply, productivity and efficiency. If you look at transportation, 75% of the total volume was provided by trucks, which created problems.
Today, with ABB, we can offer enterprises to combine all their production capacities almost in real time. To see what is happening with it, to have feedback with them, control them, identify and avoid various problems and pitfalls with different stages of production, separate services and simplify equipment inventory. This gives a whole new level of optimization. Hence - the growth of productivity, innovation, any aspect that is important for the enterprise. But this is only one of the directions. Think automation, robots, 3D printing…”
From a speech by a Microsoft representative at the IoT World 2016 conference, USA (Çağlayan Arkan – General Manager, Worldwide Manufacturing & Resources Sector, Enterprise & Partner Group)
The introduction of the Internet of things implies the need for a fundamental change in approaches to the creation and use of automated information management systems (ACS) and general approaches to managing enterprises and organizations.
“From a technical point of view, the Internet of Things is very easy to implement. The hardest part is changing the business processes. And I've never seen a company come to you one glorious day and offer you such a magical solution."
From the speech of the Baker Hughes representative at the IoT World 2016 conference, USA (Blake Burnette — Director, Equipment Research and Development)
According to J'son & Partners Consulting, behind the quantitative growth of the Internet of Things and the organizational and technological transformation of production there are important qualitative changes in the economy:
- data that was previously unavailable, with the growing penetration of embedded devices, provides valuable information about the nature of the use of the product and equipment for all participants in the production cycle, is the basis for the formation of new business models and provides additional income from the offer of new services, such as, for example: contract life cycle for industrial equipment, contract manufacturing as a service, transport as a service, security as a service, and others;
- virtualization of production functions is accompanied by the formation of a “shared economy”, characterized by significantly higher efficiency and productivity by increasing the use of available resources, changing the functionality of devices without making changes to physical objects, by changing their management technologies;
- modeling of technological processes, end-to-end design and, as a result, optimization of the value chain at all stages of the product life cycle in real time, allow the production of a piece or small-scale product at the lowest price for the Customer and with a profit for the manufacturer, which in traditional production is possible only with mass production;
- reference architecture, standardized networks, and a rental model, rather than paying full cost of ownership, make collaborative manufacturing infrastructure accessible to SMBs, facilitating their manufacturing management efforts, allowing them to respond faster to changing market demands and shorten product life cycles, and entail development and emergence of new applications and services;
- analysis of data about the user, his production facilities (machines, buildings, equipment) and the nature of consumption opens up opportunities for the service provider to improve customer experience, create greater usability, better solution and reduce customer costs, which leads to increased satisfaction and loyalty from working with by this provider;
- The functioning of various sectors of the economy will continuously become more complex under the influence of technology development and will increasingly be carried out through automatic decision-making by the machines themselves based on the analysis of a large amount of data from connected devices, which will lead to a gradual decrease in the role of production personnel, including qualified ones. High-quality professional education, including engineering, special training programs for workers and trainings will be required.
A striking example of the application of the concept of the Internet of things in industry is the project of the company Harley Davidson which manufactures motorcycles. The main problem faced by the company was the slow response to consumer demands in the face of increased competition and the limited ability to customize the five models produced by the dealers. From 2009 to 2011, the company carried out a large-scale reconstruction of its industrial sites, as a result of which a single assembly site was created, producing any type of motorcycle with the possibility of customizing from more than 1300 options.
Throughout the entire production process, sensors are used that are controlled by a MES (SAP Connected Manufacturing) class system. Each machine, each part has a radio tag that uniquely identifies the product and its production cycle. Data from sensors is transferred to the SAP HANA Cloud for IoT platform, which acts as an integration bus for collecting data from sensors and various information systems, both internal production and business systems of Harley Davidson, and information systems of the company's counterparties.
Harley Davidson has achieved fantastic results:
- Reducing the production cycle from 21 days to 6 hours (every 89 seconds a motorcycle comes off the assembly line, fully customized for its future owner).
- The company's shareholder value has grown more than sevenfold from $10 in 2009 to $70 in 2015.
In addition, end-to-end management of the production of a product (motorcycle) throughout its entire life cycle has been implemented.
Another example of the implementation of the Industrial Internet is the Italian company Brexton is a manufacturer of stone processing machines that deployed an intelligent system based on the Microsoft ecosystem, as a result of which it became possible to connect machines to remote servers of the control center, which stores production data and inventory information. The stone cutting and working machines themselves are controlled by programmable logic controllers (PLCs) connected to an HMI (Human Machine Interface). The HMI is connected via ASEM Ubiquity to a Breton PLC. The operator can go online with the HMI, select the desired specification, use the barcode scanner to scan the data. All data required for the production of a particular sample is automatically downloaded to the PLC. The process does not require the use of paper instructions, manual adjustments, manual start of the stone cutting machine.
The solution allows not only to manage and configure the operation of machines, but also to provide technical support in the form of a chat in real time. Breton plans to significantly reduce the travel costs of its experts through remote service: 85% of the company's customers are located outside of Italy. The company estimates the amount of savings at 400,000 euros.
Customers also benefit. For example, the Taiwanese company Lido Stone Works, a manufacturer of stone products to order, installed three Breton machines and switched to automated production. The decision connected the design department with the production workshop, as a result of the implementation of the new system, Lido Stone Works received the following indicators:
- revenue growth by 70%;
- 30% productivity increase.
Constraints and requirements for the implementation of IoT projects in Russia
Ecosystem and partners. To implement projects in the field of the Internet of Things, it is necessary to form an entire ecosystem, including:
- availability in Russia of an IoT platform for collecting, storing and processing data, both global and national;
- the presence of an extensive pool of application developers for IoT platforms;
- a sufficient number and range of devices capable of interacting with platforms, the so-called connected devices;
- the presence of enterprises and businesses in general, the organizational model of which allows transformation, and so on.
If IoT platforms are already available in Russia, then the main difficulties are still associated with the development of applied services and, most importantly, the organizational readiness of potential customers. At the same time, the absence of at least one of these components makes the transition to IoT technologies impossible.
Governmental support. The implementation of IoT projects in the world is actively supported by the state in the form of:
- direct government funding;
- public-private financing together with the largest players;
- working and project groups are formed from representatives of the industry, research institutions;
- test zones are organized and shared infrastructure is provided;
- competitions and hackathons are organized to create applications and developments;
- pilot projects are supported;
- research and development is funded in various areas of implementation (artificial intelligence, management information systems, security, networking, etc.);
- export of developments is supported;
- most large countries have approved long-term government programs to support the Internet of things.
For example, the Industrie 4.0 project is recognized as an important measure in strengthening German technological leadership in mechanical engineering, and direct government funding of $ 200 million is expected for its development.
Additionally, for the implementation of the program, funding for innovative research in the field of ICT is provided through the Ministry of Education for the study of:
- intelligence of embedded devices;
- simulation models of network applications;
- human-machine interaction, language and media management, robotics services.
Technological systems and equipment of industrialized countries are becoming intelligent and integrated. Enterprises are integrating into global industrial networks to connect the network of production resources and global applications.
This model is also called the shared economy. It is based on the postulate that in any isolated system, "exclusive" use of resources/devices is inefficient, no matter how technologically "advanced" these devices/resources are. And the smaller such an isolated system, the less efficiently resources are used in it, regardless of how technologically advanced they are.
Therefore, the task of IoT is not just to connect various devices (machines and industrial equipment, vehicles, engineering systems) to a communication network, but to combine devices into software-controlled pools and provide the user not with the devices themselves, but with the results of their use (device functions).
This allows you to multiply the performance and efficiency of using devices pooled in relation to the traditional model of their information-isolated use and implement fundamentally new business models, such as, for example, a life cycle contract for industrial equipment, contract manufacturing as a service, transport as a service, security as service and others.
This possibility is achieved through the implementation of the cloud computing model in relation to physical objects (devices, resources equipped with built-in intelligent systems). Unlike proprietary (closed) automation systems, using open APIs, an unlimited number and range of devices and any other data sources can be connected to the IoT platform, and the “big data” effect allows improving data analysis algorithms using machine learning technologies.
That is, the Internet of Things is not special high-tech devices, but a different model for using existing devices (resources), the transition from selling devices to selling their functions. In the IoT model, using a limited range of already installed devices, it is possible to implement almost unlimited functionality of devices without the need to make changes (or with a minimum of such) to the devices themselves, and thus achieve maximum utilization of these devices. In principle, achieving 100% efficiency in such systems is limited only by the imperfection of automatic resource management algorithms. By comparison, device utilization in traditional isolated systems is typically around 4-6%.
Thus, it can be said that the introduction of the Internet of Things does not require significant changes in the connected devices themselves, and, as a result, capital expenditures for their modernization, but implies the need for a fundamental change in approaches to their use, consisting in the transformation of methods and means of collecting, storing and processing data on the status of devices and the role of a person in the processes of data collection and device management. That is, the introduction of the Internet of things requires a change in approaches to the creation and use of automated management information systems (ACS) and general approaches to managing enterprises and organizations.
The main challenge in the medium term for Russia is the threat of loss of competitiveness on the world stage due to lagging behind in the transition to the sharing economy, the technological basis of which is the Internet of Things model, which will result in a widening gap in labor productivity from the United States from four times in 2015 to more than tenfold in 2023.
And in the long term, if adequate measures are not taken, an almost insurmountable technological barrier is predicted to arise between Russia and the leading technological powers that rely on the introduction of high-performance technologies and service deployment models, the operation of information and communication infrastructure and software applications, such as virtualization of network functions and automatic software control. This may lead to a reduction in the volume of ICT consumption in Russia in monetary terms by more than two times in 2023 compared to 2015 and the technological degradation of the ICT infrastructure deployed in the country, as well as to the isolation of Russian ICT developers from participating in actively developing currently global development ecosystems and test environments.
In an optimistic scenario, the emergence and accelerated implementation of fundamentally new business and service models in the IoT ideology, taking into account government support and accompanied by R&D, as well as the possibility of creating an open competitive economy using technical means based on a fundamental change in the role of ICT in the management of manufacturing enterprises, will be the key point of growth of the industry and economy of Russia for the next three and subsequent years.
If we take into account that in terms of labor productivity, that is, in terms of the integral indicator of resource use efficiency, Russia lags behind the United States and Germany by 4-5 times, then the growth potential for our country is many times higher than that of the so-called developed countries. And this potential must be used thanks to the joint, well-coordinated efforts of the state, business, players, scientific and research organizations.
Obviously, the economic crisis will push Russian businesses to implement projects to improve efficiency. Considering that the transition to the use of the IoT model allows you to increase it by several times, and not by fractions of a percentage, and practically without capital investments in the modernization of fixed assets, then J'son & Partners Consulting consultants expect to see more than a few “stories” this year. success” of new IoT projects in Russia.
About 150 years ago - primarily in economic studies - the existence of small, medium and large cycles of development was recorded. Among the first to note the phenomenon of undulating economic development was the little-known English railway engineer Hyde Clark, who studied the dynamics of prices, time intervals of famine, low and high yields and was sure that he had fixed the cyclical change in data. G. Clark believed that 54 years pass from crisis to crisis.
Later, Clement Juglar in 1862, studying the crises in Britain, France and the USA, noted fluctuations in the levels of stocks of goods, production load, investment in fixed assets and calculated that the average time between crises is 7-10 years. Also, Joseph Kitchin, using material from the UK and the USA, recorded small cycles lasting 40 months (later named after him) and, following K. Juglar, medium cycles 7-11 years long.
M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky tried to give a theoretical explanation of the causes of cyclicity and wrote in 1894 that √áeconomic prosperity is mainly due to expansion in international markets,<которое>due to the increase in free trade and the improvement of the transport systemƒå . Following him, Jacob van Gelderen and Salomon de Wolf suggested in the 1910s that technological progress was the cause of the undulations of economic development. This idea was productively developed almost simultaneously by the Russian scientist Konstantin Kondratiev, who showed on a large empirical basis that a change in the technology package causes a cycle of economic development 48-60 years long.
A little later, Simon Kuznets in 1930 discovered waves lasting 15-25 years, from his point of view, associated with the influx of immigrants and periodic mass renewal of housing by a new generation, and Joseph Schumpeter productively developed the concept of large Kondratiev cycles.
In accordance with the economic concepts mentioned above, development processes are uneven and unstable: any process can be described on the basis of cyclical models, it has its beginning, rise phase, peak and decline phase. The transition from one cycle to another usually occurs through a change in technology, lifestyle, social structures and can be described in terms of a structural crisis.
In recent years, popular literature - in particular, in the works of Jeremy Rifkin - the metaphor of the "third industrial revolution" has been updated again. According to this concept, each industrial revolution is characterized by its own type of basic energy carrier, the method of converting energy into mechanical energy, its own type of transport and type of communication. The unity of these key moments of the industrial and production structure forms the basis of a long economic cycle, and their change changes the type of economy and the way of industrial development.
From this point of view, the ÇzeroČ industrial revolution in the Netherlands is peat, wind turbines, canals and trequarts (canals along which ships or barges were pulled by horses walking along the roads along the canal; therefore, movement along trequarts did not depend on the presence and direction of the wind, and barges between cities ran on schedule every hour from the opening to the closing of the city gates). Not only peat, goods and people were transported along canals and trekvarts, but also mail; therefore they also acted as a means of communication. The massive use of wind turbines acted not only as a source of local energy, but also made it possible to drain large tracts of land, reclaiming them from swamps and the sea, creating the so-called ÇpoldersČ - new lands for agricultural and industrial use.
The first industrial revolution was coal, the steam engine, the railroad and the telegraph. The leader in it was England, which created a new infrastructure package based on these technologies and took the lead from the Netherlands. England also suffered through the development of science and design (dictating completely new requirements for human qualifications), as well as protectionist policies, and improved the experience of the Netherlands in terms of shipbuilding, intensive agriculture, and weaving, on which the base rate was subsequently made. As a result, about half of the products of weaving in 1800 were exported to the world market, and the products of English enterprises accounted for more than 60% of the world market. On the basis of the new infrastructure package, the mining industry and the production of coke, high-quality and, most importantly, cheap cast iron and ductile iron, and precision engineering were launched.
The second industrial revolution is based on oil, the internal combustion engine, automobile and aircraft, electricity, and related forms of communication (telephone and radio). The leadership in this industrial revolution belonged to the United States. Many countries began to create elements of a new infrastructure package almost simultaneously with the United States: Russia also produced oil and exported its products; ICE, car, and then quality roads were created in Germany; the unified power system was implemented in Japan and Korea. But the US was the first to roll out the new infrastructure package in its entirety, and this gave them a developmental advantage. The country has significantly pressed the former leader, Great Britain, in weaving and exporting fabrics. In the 1920s, the Ford corporation alone (and there were others) owned ¾ of the world's automobile market, covering thirty-six countries on three continents. To implement these steps, the United States needed to turn research and design, which had previously been carried out by outstanding singles, into professions, and their organization into research and design √ámanufactoriesƒå, which conduct research and development in many areas and, in cooperation between these areas, create elements of a new technological package (it is clear that under these conditions, one of the key competencies was the ability to participate in research and design cooperation and organize it).
The third industrial revolution, according to Rifkin, is the Internet as a means of communication. Let's add - and the joint work of participants and teams distributed around the globe. And the Çenergy platformČ of the third industrial revolution has not yet taken shape. D. Rifkin believes that this role can be played by small renewable energy sources in homes, offices and enterprises, Smart Greed, which will connect these Çconsumer-generatorsČ and solve the problem of non-synchronization of generation and consumption, hydrogen fuel cells as renewable energy accumulators, and also vehicles with a hydrogen fuel cell battery.
D. Rifkin argues that the cause of today's crisis is high energy prices, in particular oil. In the second half of the XX century. China, India, Brazil, Mexico and a number of other third world countries joined the industrialization processes. However, ways to industrialize without increasing or at least maintaining the level of energy consumption have not yet been invented. Because of this, energy consumption has increased - in 1978, the maximum level of oil consumption per capita of the Earth was reached, and since then, the increase in oil production has been slower than the increase in the population. When the shortage of energy resources led to an increase in the cost of a barrel of oil to $120-150, a significant part of consumers were not ready to pay for more expensive products, and economic growth slowed down. The financial crisis was only a consequence of the suspension of economic growth and consumer pessimism. After 2008, there were several situations when the world economy began to “accelerate” and energy consumption increased, but economic growth again “rested” on rising prices, in particular oil. Therefore, until a transition to new energy sources is made, which will provide cheaper energy to producers, there will be no way out of the economic crisis, according to Rifkin.
From our point of view, the rise in energy prices is only one of the visible components of the crisis. As the experience of the first three industrial revolutions (including the so-called "zero" one) shows, any crisis indicates a lack of the existing package of infrastructures. Stagnation and crisis come when the old infrastructures become insufficient and cease to provide resources for new and old processes. The crisis continues until new infrastructures are formed. New technologies and elements of a new infrastructure package based on them begin to take shape at the end of the old cycle, but until a full-fledged new technological and infrastructure platform is formed from them, which will provide resources for new processes, there will be no way out of the crisis.
Rifkin's works, from this point of view, in a cruder and simpler form, continue the studies of cyclists - including the above-mentioned Russian scientist of the early twentieth century. N.D. Kondratiev. The basis of the so-called "big cycles of conjuncture" Kondratiev put the change of basic technologies and argued that before and at the beginning of the Çupward waveČ of the big cycle, major discoveries and inventions occur, generating significant changes in production, trade and the place of the countries that carried them out in the world division of labor; The Çupward waveČ of the big cycle is also saturated with social changes.
Today, we are inclined to assume that, in addition to the technological processes that Kondratiev paid attention to, the processes of social dynamics and generational change also underlie large development cycles. The specified time parameters of cycles, 47-60 years, empirically "discovered" by Kondratiev, are most likely due to the fact that this is a cycle of life and the change of three generations, each of which, as modern studies show, takes 16-21 years (at the same time, in In the 20th century, these terms increase rather than decrease). Actually, this is, from our point of view, the chronotope of the "Kondratiev" cycle. It is the change of three generations that sets the "unit" of cyclicity.
Considering the three industrial revolutions through the prism of these ideas, we see that here too one can see the role of technological and social factors. From a technological point of view, in order to start a new industrial revolution, it is necessary that an "infrastructure package" be formed, on the basis of which the problems of the past cycle will be overcome.
Therefore, the first wave is associated with the accumulation of disparate innovative solutions, which later become elements of a new package. This is the innovation phase. At the next stage, a new package has already taken shape - usually this happens in the leading country or region and can be borrowed by the countries of catching up industrialization as a whole. However, here we are faced with scaling difficulties, the causes of which lie in the sphere of culture and consciousness. The most conservative moment in development is people with their habitual mental models, ways of thinking and doing. The tasks of scaling up the new technological paradigm can only be solved by restructuring the systems of education and mass training.
If we now return to the metaphor of the Third Industrial Revolution, today we are in a situation very similar to the beginning of the 18th century, when the main "puzel1s" of the first industrial revolution took shape, or to the end of the 19th century, when a new infrastructure package of the modern economic system was being formed. . The crisis of the beginning of the 21st century is associated with the exhaustion of the resource potential of the second industrial revolution and the infrastructures that support it. And today we are in its initial stage, when key innovative solutions are being developed.
We do not yet know what they will be: the search is going on simultaneously in different directions. Moreover, successful decisions in one area or another (for example, in energy) will depend on decisions in other areas until a sustainable infrastructure package is assembled. The country or region that does this for the first time on its territory will objectively take the place of the leader of the world process. It can be assumed that the new assembly will take shape by 2020-2030. But as soon as it arises, the mass replacement of the old economic and social structures with new ones will begin. The process will enter its active phase; this will lead to a gigantic release of people from old industries, the disappearance of a number of professions. We will witness the loss of work of a mass of industrial workers - including in developed countries - due to further automation and robotization of industrial production against the backdrop of pressure from unclaimed labor resources from the newly industrialized countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Africa and Latin America. Serious changes will also affect social and political institutions, social mobility, healthcare and education.
So, we are at the peak of the innovative phase of a large development cycle. The leading technological order is changing. The basic technologies and infrastructural foundations of the Third Industrial Revolution are being formed.
It is good to describe history: we see traces of a process that has already taken place. It is difficult to predict: there are several different options for completing the construction of the technological platform of the Third Industrial Revolution. But the main thing is that in a situation of transition from one development cycle to another, from one platform to another, the old meanings are blurred and cease to determine the behavior and actions of a person. What was in demand even 10 and even more so 20 years ago is no longer needed. People well trained in the old technological order are left without jobs and livelihoods. The boundaries of professional communities and activities are blurred. A person trained according to the old patterns is rather a brake on innovations than their creator. Having taken a loan and paid crazy money for higher education, a young man cannot find a job in his specialty and turns out to be "bankrupt", having not done anything yet and has not undertaken anything.
No need to think that no one sees and does not know. A young person is already in high school, and sometimes even earlier, hears about it from adults and through the media, reads on the Internet and discusses with peers. Under these conditions, the receipt of traditional education is in question. It is meaningless in the new situation.
So, the third technological revolution is the result of the crisis of mass industrial production aimed at extensive development, the result of the end of the era of cheap oil and a new aggravation of competition in the world market. This revolution made it possible to begin the transition to a post-industrial society.
The general scheme of the three-wave history of mankind is now built as follows: pre-industrial (agrarian), industrial and post-industrial society.
When did the transition to a post-industrial society begin? The generally accepted assessment is that since the mid-1970s, when a radical renewal of technology began, changes in the structure of employment, the system of values and ideas about the world were especially exposed. This was the beginning of a large cycle of economic development, according to N. Kondratiev.
Particular attention in such arguments of a technological nature is paid to the development of information technology, and especially the rapid change in generations of microprocessors, computers, the development of communication systems (communications) - fiber optic, satellite, cellular, etc. On this basis, the information revolution is unfolding. Therefore, the post-industrial society is also called information society.
Scientific and technological revolution. So often in the 1970s. called the rapid introduction of the latest technological advances. This, in fact, was about the third industrial and technological revolution, the core of which is the information revolution, since the production and processing of information and knowledge are becoming the occupation of the majority of workers in the developed countries of the world. But the name "scientific and technological revolution" remains important because it highlights one of the main features of the change. The combination of the words "scientific" and "technical" revolution means not just the convergence of science and technology, science and production, but the fact that science is becoming a direct productive force. This means that theoretical scientific knowledge is the basis of modern progress in the development of new technologies. Therefore, the post-industrial society is often also called knowledge society, and the modern economy - the economy of knowledge. It is knowledge, its improvement and expansion that become the basis for innovations in various spheres of life and production. The race for innovation is the essence of the modern economy.
Third Industrial and Technological Revolution
deployed as a result of invention and improvement in the 1970s. microprocessors and integrated circuits and the creation of personal computers based on them. Along with microelectronics, information and communication technologies, the most promising branches of modern science and production are the development of biotechnology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, the technology of new materials, etc. Achievements in these areas are based on new ways of processing and transmitting information. Thanks to biotechnology, a significant amount of food is already being produced around the world, which is not affected by harmful insects and diseases.
So, most of the soy in the world is a genetically modified product. The cloning (creation of a doppelgänger from a cage) of Dolly the sheep in the UK in 1996 ushered in a new era in solving a number of problems. Human cloning is prohibited in all developed countries of the world, research is being carried out in the direction of the possible cultivation of various organs and tissues necessary for transplantation to a person from his own cells. The decoding of the human genome, which was completed in 2002, also opens up unprecedented prospects for the development of modern science. The new technological symbols of the era were the personal computer and the cloned sheep Dolly. The United States became the main country that made a technological breakthrough in the framework of the third industrial and technological revolution.
Second and third industrial and technological revolutions